Saturday, October 25, 2008

Cost of Living and Late Families

In addition not only is the population of British Columbia and Canada aging, the birth rate is low. There are many factors contributing to this tread. Faced with a high cost of living and limited access to affordable multi-bedroom homes near transit, many people like myself have delayed having a family and will probably only have one child.

High cost of living also results in a higher supply chain cost, where labour is significant portion of this supply chain cost. A lower cost of living will reduce the burden of the aging population and make investment in British Columbia more attractive.

The cost of living is primarily housing, transportation and food. To reduce these cost it is important to build efficient cities which are not sprawling over a large area. Sprawling cities are the often the result of insufficient and inefficient redevelopment. Sprawling cities have very high personal transportation cost and semi-ironically very high housing cost when living within a reasonable commuting
distance/time. It is very important that expensive urban transit is not under utilized. In order to utilize urban transit it is important that the area around transit stations, which may be train/subway stations or bus terminals is redevelopment in a timely manner. Property value taxes do not accurately reflect the social value of land. High value land enjoying access to social transit services are
under valued. As a result people sit on this land preventing redevelopment. Traditionally property owners near transit stations hold on to their land in order to capture the increased land value which results from being near a transit station. The traditional practice slows redevelopment near transit, and result in a slower
property value appreciation which does not reflect the much high land value. Many more people would have an opportunity to enjoy access to transit if land near transit stations was more effectively redeveloped.

Near transit stations land value not property value should be taxed. Land near transit stations have an increase economic value of economical efficient transportation and should be taxed according. Land near a transit station has access a much higher transportation density. Height restrictions near transit are senseless. Green space regulations however do make sense.

For example land within walking distance to transit station should be taxed at assumed building hight of 10 stories. Of course public green space within this vivacity should not be taxed because of is significant social value to the community.

As the land value tax is phased in over a reasonable time frame of 5yrs, many land owners will redevelop the land as higher density. However not all transit stations are equally attractive for redevelopment. Taking this into consideration an urban development corporation should be formed to purchase property near transit
stations at the present market value + market real estate appreciated value. Failing this many land owners of low density property near transit stations would not have an opportunity to sell their property before incurring a significantly higher tax charge. And they would be rightly hostile and against converting from a property value tax to a land value tax. The land acquired by the urban development corporation
can be build into high density property.

To increase availability of multi-bedroom homes near transit, I believe it is a good idea for the urban development corporation to build much of the high density property with finished exteriors and unfinished interiors. Many stores and office buildings are already built this way. The unfinished interiors will allow first time home owners to buy a larger home and as a result start a family sooner. Young people are a very mobile work force and will often change jobs in order to advance their career. The transit access will enable many of them a ability to change jobs without needing to relocate themselves. With less disruption of their social network and access to schools there should be less pressure to delay having a family.

Demographic changes effecting Health Care

At this time I would like to highlight my concerns for British Columbia and Canada. We are about to go through some difficult times. And it is going to be more difficult than many expect. The reason is the aging population of British Columbia and Canada. Just as the aging population will result in a lower rate of violent crimes, it also will also result in a high health care demand for doctors.

Just as business plans for up coming market trends, Governments need to as well. The demand for doctors, dentist, and other health care professionals can be estimated with reasonable confidence. To meet this demand British Columbia needs to train doctors. British Columbia has many good Medical Universities and is able to produce and attract high quality students. The problem is just as British Columbia and Canada can expect an increasing demand for health care professionals so can United States. Many of our trained professionals will leave for the United States almost immediately after graduation.

To attract students into the health care profession I believe British Columbia should offer students up to the estimated number required student loan bonds. Like traditional student loans these cover education and basic living expenses. Unlike conventional student loans, student loan bonds will be forgiven if the student works a few years in Canada. Perhaps 3yrs for undergrad and masters and 5yrs for Phd. Of course students have the option of converting the full cost of their education tuition, living expenses and Provincial/Federal University funding into a loan, if they wish to leave instead of working a few years in Canada.

I believe student loan bonds are an efficient way for British Columbia to prepare for the demand in health care professionals. I also believe 3yrs and 5yrs is sufficiently long, even though this may not be sufficiently long for British Columbia, Canada to be fully compensated for the training cost. I significant number who stay these few short years will make connections with their communities and formal social relationships and as result stay longer.

Since a portion of University funding is Federal, I think it is important to highlight the future demand in health care professionals now and make it a Federal election issue.